Lessons From the Kenyan and Nigerian Citizen Protest

Introduction

The recent protests in Nigeria and Kenya hold important lessons for every African country. Unemployment, high cost of living, and an activist youth make for a toxic cocktail. Both protests were driven by economic hardship, political discontent, and growing youth activism that are increasingly organized. In this article we look at why the protest started and persisted in the first place and illustrate how other countries have implemented reforms without frustrating large parts of the population.

1.  The Cost of Living is too High.

Nigeria’s protests were driven by a spike in the cost of living that was made worse after President Bola Tinubu’s economic policies, which included the removal of a long-standing fuel subsidy and a higher electricity tariff. This has caused petrol and food prices to rise by 40%, the highest in the last three decades. To put this into perspective, the inflation rate in Nigeria increased to 34% in June from 33.9% in May 2024. As recently as 2019, the poverty rate in northern geopolitical zones was 46.5% in 2018/19, compared with 13.5% for southern ones, and higher prices are making things worse for everyday citizens. As September approaches and young parents contend with school fees and uniforms, while youths walk around unemployed it is easy to see why protests erupted.

In Kenya, additional taxes that were being proposed would have made citizens poorer. Inflation was already high and averaged 7% in 2023. However, the situation is not as bad as that of Nigeria where inflation above 30% is coupled with exceedingly high interest rates. This means that businesses cannot borrow to invest, basically crippling the economy and reinforcing the doom loop of low investment, slow productivity, and slower increases in formal employment.

2.  Corruption is equally driving discontent

The youths are expressing their concerns over poor governance, corruption, and lack of necessities that have caused widespread demonstrations under the slogan #EndBadGovernancein Nigeria. This has drawn in tens of thousands of protesters voicing specific demands for governmental accountability and economic relief. The story is different in Kenya. Violent clashes erupted after President William Ruto’s proposed tax increases on essential goods. The protests were driven by younger generations and other factions that are not aligned with traditional parties.

“The government’s response has been heavy-handed and outrageous. Nobody wants to pay more taxes to fund a socialist utopia or support a bloated, costly, and inefficient public sector”. Governments want more tax revenues, but people demand greater responsibility”.

One thing is clear, the youth in both countries are challenging power to bring attention to legitimate concerns. The rising cost of living, poor governance, and lack of accountability have frustrated the youths and civil society, pushing them to the streets. So, what is the solution to the problem? There is no one-size-fits-all-all in Africa. Each country faces different realities, but we face common challenges to which there are some solutions that we can apply. More importantly, there are lessons to be learned by all Africans especially leaders at all levels.

1.  Increases in Fuel Prices Must be Gradual

In 2023 and 2024, the government of Cameroon reduced the subsidy to fur prices by 15% on average. However, there were no protests as there have been accompanying measures such as a small increase in the minimum wage, price caps on essential foods, and the suspension of import duties on some cargoes of rice. Indeed, inflation in Cameroon has not exceeded 8% in both years, but these measures have supported domestic consumption. With a population of over 200 million, the measures and their severity matter. Other countries like Morocco have equally removed fuel subsidies in the past and they did so gradually, not allowing prices to rise by more than 10% at any given time. This gave people time to adapt every year and not feel the impact significantly.

The IMF has called for the government to completely withdraw fuel subsidies. I strongly discourage this as inflation is already high in Cameroon and 40% of the population leaves below the poverty line. We must ensure that fuel price increases are gradual to allow people time and space to adjust their expenses. Unlike Nigeria and Kenya, Morocco removed fuel subsidies gradually over several year. There is no reason why Cameroon must remove all its subsidies in one go. Such an outcome will be insensitive to over 11 million people living below the poverty line, not to talk of entrepreneurs who are wary of passing on higher fuel prices and transport cost to consumers.

2.  Governance Must Become the Norm

The youths are equally protesting nepotism and other forms of corruption that have plagued them and other African countries. Nigeria and Kenya rank 125 and 126 in global corruption according to Transparency International’s ranking for 2023. This is a problem common to all countries, but its effects are worst across Africa where huge portions of the civil society work in the informal sector and live below $10 a day. Without blowing the horns of multidimensional poverty, the situation is nonetheless dire. Cameroon has its issues with bad governance. Public investments are badly managed, mired in nepotism and insider corruption. In Cameroon, the Supreme State Audit investigates ministries and individuals even as there should be clearer legal pathways towards legal punishments and the repayment of lost funds to prevent perverse incentives.

3.  Create Supportive Conditions for the Private Sector.

In both countries, the private sector is still held back by difficult legislation and high taxes. This is preventing them from creating employment for the youth and while recent finance laws have sought to encourage innovation by making them tax deductible, that is not enough. With over 70% of people employed in the informal sector, it is important to ensure that policies are not trickle down. The cost of registering a business must be slashed, and start-ups and newly registered businesses should be exempt from paying taxes for at 2 years. This will not cost the governments much as these businesses may be lost in the informal sector, paying little to no taxes.

To recommend policies from Cameroon regarding this issue seems outlandish, but both countries need good and limited government, the rule of law, and market-driven economic development. When people aren’t free or can’t feed themselves, they protest. The protests in Nigeria and Kenya are textbook cases of how not to withdraw fuel subsidies. We must not blame the IMF for telling African countries to stop subsidizing the consumption of petrol but hold our governments to account for not doing it in a manner that reflects the realities of citizens.

Conclusion

The protests in Nigeria and Kenya are a lesson to all African countries, including Cameroon. Prices must rise gradually and the government must resist calls from the IMF to completely remove fuel subsidies. Prices must rise gradually to ensure that consumers can adjust to prevent a protest in stable parts of the countries’ especially as this will embolden other security risks across the country. We must reform, tackle corruption and legitimize the role and abilities of national auditors like CONSUPE to investigate institutions and individuals for claims of wrong doing.

Sonia Kouam

Civil Administrator

Supreme State Audit

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